$100K.
1M+ messages.
4 states.
Two cycles. The math works.
SummaryBlack voters with VAN turnout scores between 30 and 70 — the missing middle — respond at scale to BEA's economic frame.
60% of Black voters have not been asked to participate in resistance this year. Phase 1 is the ask, at $0.08 per voter.
Phase 1 educates, builds trust, and qualifies the list. Phase 2 inherits the universe, the data, and zero ramp-up.
2022 → 2024 → 2026
Same thesis. Compounding scale.- States5
- Textable cells1.2M
- Sends1.0M+
- Response rate45%
- Target turnout29%
- Cost / voter$0.08
- States5
- Textable cells985K
- Sends3.2M
- Engagement38.2%
- Early-vote turnout47%
- Cost / voter$0.08
- States4
- Phase 1 universe820K–910K
- Projected sends1.0–1.2M
- Projected engagement~38%
- List-build target40K–60K opt-ins
- Cost / voter$0.08
The $0.08 blended cost-per-voter benchmark established in 2022 has held across 1.0M and 3.2M send volumes — including the heavier MMS share added for the 2024 housing and entrepreneurship visuals. Phase 1 is priced to that same line.
2022 · Proof of concept
$80K · 5 states · 1.0M+ sendsBlack voters with VAN turnout scores between 30 and 70 would respond at scale to BEA's economic frame. Three waves — early Oct, late Oct, Nov 8 GOTV — tested it.
Takeaway. Meetings with the DGA, DSCC, DCCC, and DNC that cycle confirmed no other committee was targeting Black infrequent voters in swing states. That is still true.
| State | BEA Universe | Textable Cells | Reference Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 640,000 | 530,000 | Warnock +99,389 |
| North Carolina | 485,000 | 341,000 | Beasley −121,737 |
| Michigan | 218,000 | 161,000 | Whitmer +469,674 |
| Pennsylvania | 187,000 | 124,000 | Fetterman +263,505 |
| Wisconsin | 103,000 | 45,000 | Barnes −26,255 |
| Total | 1,633,000 | 1,201,000 | — |
2024 · Scaled execution
$300K · 985K cells delivered against a 1.0M target| State | Round 1 Target | Actual Cells | First Send |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 370,000 | 354,006 | 312,019 |
| North Carolina | 250,000 | 252,112 | In-flight |
| Pennsylvania | 193,000 | 175,146 | 150,588 |
| Michigan | 147,000 | 153,418 | 121,950 |
| Nevada | 40,000 | 50,029 | 34,657 |
| Total | 1,000,000 | 984,711 | — |
Built inside VAN/TargetSmart and Catalist. Same methodology in 2026, refreshed for the current voter file.
Test cadence. C3 used a four-arm A/B/C/D test (6,500/arm, 26K sample). C4 used two-arm. Winner shipped to the full universe within 72 hours.
The numbers, 2024
3.2M sends · 38.2% engagement · 47% early-voteThe cohort the program was built to surface and persuade.
Pocketbook frames out-engaged civil rights and health framings — especially with disengaged male voters.
Housing affordability
Survived A/B/C/D, went wide on C3.
Entrepreneurship
Survived A/B/C/D, went wide on C3.
Wealth-building
Cut from wide send.
GOP head-to-head contrast
Cut from wide send.
+16 Harris. −12 Trump.
Among respondents · Oct 9 → Nov 4 · 2024Heavily Black men under 40.
Black women 40+ — the anchor of Democratic turnout.
Black men 40+ contribution to pro-Harris sentiment.
What we’ve done.
Two cycles, five states, ~$380K deployed. 3.2M sends in 2024, 38% engagement, +16-point Harris swing. A program that holds up under audit.
What we’re proposing.
$100K, four months, four states. 1M+ messages built on the proven infrastructure — ready to flex into Phase 2 GOTV without rebuild.
The electorate is ready. They haven't been asked.
HIT Strategies · Black Opps researchOf Black voters say Trump's policies have hurt them personally, up from 47% in April 2025 — a 12-point swing in six months.
But 41% of Spectators see personal impact vs. 82% of Defenders. Connecting policy to household experience is the work.
Of Black voters say no one has asked them to participate in any resistance activity in the past year.
Texting is asking. At $0.08 per voter, the cheapest concrete ask we can put in front of an Activatable.
“Very concerned” about Medicaid cuts — the highest-concern message overall, with DEI (71%), tariffs (69%), housing (69%), inflation (69%) close behind.
Phase 1 sits exactly on top of the issue territory the research validates.
Activatables move best on Medicaid. Defenders on DEI. Spectators on Medicaid and DEI together. The 2024 program already proved the issue spines — housing, entrepreneurship, generational wealth — would scale.
4 states. 820K–910K cells.
May 25 → Aug 31, 2026 · Non-partisan economic education| State | 2024 Universe | 2026 Phase 1 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 354,006 | 340–370K | Open gov race; protect Ossoff |
| Michigan | 153,418 | 150–165K | Aug 4 primary inflection |
| North Carolina | 252,112 | 245–265K | Don Davis protect; Senate expand |
| Virginia | — New — | 85–110K | VA-02 expansion · Jun 9 primary |
| Phase 1 Total | — | 820–910K | — |
Educate
Connect federal policy — Medicaid, tariffs, housing — to household experience using the issue spines that already scaled in 2024.
Build trust
Establish BEA as the credible economic messenger via two-way conversations managed in real time by trained responders.
Build the list
Qualify 40K–60K explicit opt-ins across four states for Phase 2 partisan GOTV — same vendor, same staff, no ramp.
Compliance: All sends C3/C4 compliant, 10DLC-registered, Switchboard platform (active billing on BEA Account A51DBF50 since April 2025). Suppression includes 2022/2024 opt-outs, deceased, TCPA-restricted.
4 waves. 4 months. 72-hour test-to-wide.
A/B test ~6,500/arm → analyze → wide send within 72 hrsIntroduction
Who BEA is and why economic policy is hitting Black households. Open the relationship; signal the credible messenger posture.
Pain-point education
Medicaid cuts, tariffs, federal job losses, housing affordability — the HIT-validated, 2024-proven issue spines.
Progress & power
Collective action that produced results — Target boycott, George Floyd-era reforms. The “things change when we move” frame.
List build & bridge
Reinforce trust; preview Phase 2 mobilization; layer in Michigan Aug 4 primary information for engaged segment.
$100,000 · How it deploys
$0.08 per voter · benchmark held since 2022Across 4 waves, 4 states.
Two-way, live-managed.
Qualified, tagged, ready.
Same as 2022 and 2024.
An incremental $25K–$50K in July deepens GA/MI ahead of the open GA gov primary and MI Aug 4 primary, and adds a 5th wave bridging into Phase 2.
Phase 1 ends August. Phase 2 starts September.
Same vendor · same staff · same list · zero rampWhen BEA shifts to its partisan GOTV posture under the C4, the Phase 1 universe, the message-test history, and the live response infrastructure carry forward without rebuild. Three scenarios sized to donor outcome:
Same 4 Phase 1 states. Phase 1 opt-ins prioritized. 2 GOTV waves.
Phase 1 states + PA + NV. Matches 2024 footprint geographically. Closes the gap on the missing-middle states that didn't break our way in 2022.
Full 2024 footprint at 2024 send volume. 3 GOTV waves. The configuration that delivered 47% early-vote turnout last cycle.
Phase 1 is the qualifier. Phase 2 sizing is a donor conversation BEA leads — we'll have refreshed lift data by mid-July to inform it.
Approve. Build. Send.
First send live within 14 days of contract executionDaniel led the 2022 program and ran the 2024 program through VoteShift under the same scope we propose for 2026: universe build, scripts with BEA leadership, send execution, live response, C3/C4 compliance, wrap-up reporting.
BEA does not pay for ramp-up because there is none.
Daniel Deriso · President & Founder, VoteShift · daniel@voteshift.com · 205-223-2357 · voteshift.com